A reference tool reproducing the National Cancer Center Japan's point-based liver cancer risk model. It scores age, sex, alcohol habits, BMI, diabetes, coffee-drinking habits, and hepatitis virus infection into a 10-year reference figure. This result is not an individual probability of developing the disease.
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Calculation basis and official references
Reviewed on:
This calculator is not a diagnosis, treatment plan, or prescription. Please consult a qualified clinician about your medical decisions.
Formula basis
Points are assigned for age (40-49=0, 50-59=2, 60-69=3), sex (male=2, female=0), alcohol habit (none/former drinker=1, under 450g/week=0, 450g/week or more=2), BMI 25 or above (+1), diabetes present (+1), daily coffee of 1 cup or more (-1), HBV positive (+4), and HCV positive (+6). The total score (-1 to 19) is then mapped to the published 10-year incidence probability table (under 0.1% to 99.9%) released by the National Cancer Center Japan.
Calculation method
Estimates a 10-year liver cancer diagnosis rate from a points-based score using age, sex, alcohol habits, BMI, diabetes, coffee-drinking habits, hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection.
Exclusions and checks required
This reproduces a simplified point-sheet version of the underlying statistical model; it does not guarantee an individual's exact incidence probability. The source material itself notes that hepatitis treatment history is not accounted for.
The underlying cohort was drawn from specific regions of Japan, which limits generalizability to other populations.
The model reflects a J-shaped relationship in the source data, where 'no alcohol' scores worse than 'under 450g/week'; the scoring is not simply monotonic with intake.
Example input:：Example from the source page: 52-year-old man, 500g/week alcohol, BMI 26, diabetes present, 1 cup of coffee/day, HCV positive
sex
Male
age
50-59
height
170
weight
75.14
alcohol
Drinks (450g/week or more)
diabetes
Present
coffee
1 cup or more daily
hbv
Negative
hcv
Positive
The total of 13 points displays as a '10-year liver cancer figure of 17.5%', but this is a population-statistics estimate from a point-based model; it is not a probability of you personally developing cancer.
Official references
10年間で肝がんを発生する確率について-危険因子による個人の肝がん発生の予測-National Cancer Center Japan, Institute for Cancer Control, Prevention-related Project (Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study, JPHC Study)
Who is this calculator for? 10-Year Liver Cancer Reference Risk
A reference tool reproducing the National Cancer Center Japan's point-based liver cancer risk model. It scores age, sex, alcohol habits, BMI, diabetes, coffee-drinking habits, and hepatitis virus infection into a 10-year reference figure. This result is not an individual probability of developing the disease.
What values should I enter?
Applies to: Risk reference
How should I interpret this estimate?
Estimates a 10-year liver cancer diagnosis rate from a points-based score using age, sex, alcohol habits, BMI, diabetes, coffee-drinking habits, hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection.
How to use
Enter your input values and press Calculate.
Review the result and compare it with expected context.
Points are assigned for age (40-49=0, 50-59=2, 60-69=3), sex (male=2, female=0), alcohol habit (none/former drinker=1, under 450g/week=0, 450g/week or more=2), BMI 25 or above (+1), diabetes present (+1), daily coffee of 1 cup or more (-1), HBV positive (+4), and HCV positive (+6). The total score (-1 to 19) is then mapped to the published 10-year incidence probability table (under 0.1% to 99.9%) released by the National Cancer Center Japan.