A reference tool reproducing the National Cancer Center Japan's point-based colorectal cancer risk model for men. It scores age, BMI, physical activity, alcohol habits, and smoking into a 10-year reference figure. This result is not an individual probability of developing the disease.
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Calculation basis and official references
Reviewed on:
This calculator is not a diagnosis, treatment plan, or prescription. Please consult a qualified clinician about your medical decisions. This model applies to men only.
Formula basis
Age points (40-44=0, 45-49=1, 50-54=3, 55-59=4, 60-64=5, 65-69=6) plus 1 point if BMI is 25 or above, 0 points for low physical activity (under 24.7 METs-hours) or -1 point for moderate-to-high activity, alcohol points (1 point for under 300g/week, 2 points for 300g/week or more, 0 for none/occasional), and 1 point for current smoking are summed. The total score (-1 to 10) is then mapped to the published 10-year incidence probability table (0.2%-7.4%) released by the National Cancer Center Japan.
Calculation method
For Japanese men aged 40-69, estimates a 10-year colorectal cancer diagnosis rate from a points-based score using age, BMI, physical activity level, alcohol consumption, and smoking status. This model does not apply to women.
Exclusions and checks required
This model was developed and validated only in Japanese men and does not apply to women.
This reproduces a simplified point-sheet version of the underlying Cox proportional-hazards statistical model (beta coefficients and survival function); it does not guarantee an individual's exact incidence probability.
Physical activity (METs-hours) is normally derived from detailed sitting/standing/sleep time data; this calculator simplifies it to a 'low' vs 'moderate-to-high' choice.
Example input:：Example from the source page: 50-year-old man, BMI 23, 25 METs-hours, under 300g/week alcohol, current smoker
ageBand
50-54
height
170
weight
66.5
smoke
Current
alcohol
Drinks (under 300g/week)
activity
Moderate to high (24.7 METs-hours or more)
The total of 4 points displays as a '10-year colorectal cancer figure of 1.3%', but this is a population-statistics estimate from a point-based model; it is not a probability of you personally developing cancer.
Official references
男性が10年間で大腸がんを罹患する確率について：危険因子による個人のがん発生の予測National Cancer Center Japan, Institute for Cancer Control, Prevention-related Project (Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study, JPHC Study)
Who is this calculator for? 10-Year Colorectal Cancer Reference Risk (Men)
A reference tool reproducing the National Cancer Center Japan's point-based colorectal cancer risk model for men. It scores age, BMI, physical activity, alcohol habits, and smoking into a 10-year reference figure. This result is not an individual probability of developing the disease.
What values should I enter?
Applies to: Risk reference
How should I interpret this estimate?
For Japanese men aged 40-69, estimates a 10-year colorectal cancer diagnosis rate from a points-based score using age, BMI, physical activity level, alcohol consumption, and smoking status. This model does not apply to women.
How to use
Enter your input values and press Calculate.
Review the result and compare it with expected context.
Age points (40-44=0, 45-49=1, 50-54=3, 55-59=4, 60-64=5, 65-69=6) plus 1 point if BMI is 25 or above, 0 points for low physical activity (under 24.7 METs-hours) or -1 point for moderate-to-high activity, alcohol points (1 point for under 300g/week, 2 points for 300g/week or more, 0 for none/occasional), and 1 point for current smoking are summed. The total score (-1 to 10) is then mapped to the published 10-year incidence probability table (0.2%-7.4%) released by the National Cancer Center Japan.